Jamaica

Relaxed and in love with Jamaica now.

It's a pleasant country and the trip has been relaxing with some mild countryside outdoor fun, just as we expected, a good escape after frantic planning.   The wedding was a memorable day and indeed so many things went through on that day, that Lian and I have to use a couple days to "digest" it.

We are staying in the laid-back Treasure Beach area, in a boutique cottage with friendly staff.  I love hearing sea waves and being kissed by sunshine just right out of the backdoor!  Because this area is less crowded and it's a quiet season, virtually every place we visit is "private" i.e. just us and guide.  We'll run into a guy at the hotel bar and he's the guide for hiking and biking.   Swimming and Snokeling, enjoying good (and cheap) seafood and Jamaican jerk food (btw we found out Jerk Pork is the same as Chinese roast pork), reading together, etc. without any pressure allows us to communicate and enjoy.  The hot weather was good for wildlife - even without visiting areas like Ocho Rios, we see many insects, hummingbirds, goats, cows, etc.. It's supposedly to be rainy but we're blessed with some good timing of outdoor activities too. 

Of course, the most important thing is for Lian and I, the newly wed to spend quality time and get rest.  The slow pace of southern Jamaica fits us very well.  I hope the plans we laid out as a new couple will be implemented well :)

Thinking back, Jamaica is such a small country with tourism as the no.1 industry.. that makes people friendly and commercial, in general.  However, as we drive deeper and see many of the less touristy places in the hills, a picture of developing country emerges, that really looks like Southern China.  Though ethnicity is entirely different (Jamaica is mostly african-american mixed with many other ethnicities), similar economy situation deems developing nations very similar.  Of course, Jamaica is hugely dependent on UK (was colonized and people drive on the left!) and the US, and people follow the presidential election religiously.  The outward-looking mindset, and the large portion of returning Jamaican enjoying retirement back home.

Overall it's a easy, sunny country to visit.  We were mostly at Treasure Beach; the largest white-sand beaches are in Negril area where the all-inclusive resorts were pioneered (glad we didnt have to use those yet); Black River, Montego Bay, the city of Kingston are other areas of interest. 

   I am glad I'll be married to you soon.
You're the most pleasant shock wave in my life.

World Map

Got an email from Amnesty as I enjoyed my 1-day vacation;  I was comparing the map of whatever "places I've been to" and the coverage of AI in the world.  Interesting maps indeed.

I wish I got more time to travel!

In my vague memory I remember quoting Art. 13 (Freedom of Travel) of UDHR.  AI is all about Art. 18 and 19 (Conscience, Freedom of Speech/opinion);  human rights while "universally declared" is often precedented by the pursuit of economic development, esp. for emerging economies.  We can still have sound development without these, but rising to the top tier of the world requires quite many building blocks.

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness;
Without reading A Tale of Two Cities, I probably don't comprehend the deeper meaning of this often-used quote, but I'll take them literally.  Looking back what happened in the past year, feeling the presence, striving to plan for un uncertain future, remembering the eternal matters, makes up a good pre-prayer reflection.

When does the story begin?  The year of 2003 was when Iraqi war started, when I returned from D.C. to Hong Kong via Europe, the year when credit derivatives and credit in general boomed.  The credit machine drove on till late 2006, benefiting people like myself (graduating in 05).  Since working in my previous company, a fixed-income asset manager, I've seen ever more sophisticated instrument being introduced.

For a quant-minded finance practitioner it has been exciting, just to think about how to value and assess the risk of these securities.  CDO is actually a very old concept, but it really gained traction and came in different flavors.  For the more senior practitioner, they might have seen it as another 'business' cycle, something waited to be turned around.

My previous employer, and a lot of dealers, hedge funds, etc. are kinda bearish on securities linked to mortgages. Mortgage credit has been loosened, with the chain of soaring property prices, lax underwriting, greedy packaging process, investing without due diligence feeding on themselves.

I found myself on a structured trading desk in the spring of 07.  Not wanting to do mortgage business partly because of the interest to do something news, and partly because I admit ABS CDOs are just too hard for me to understand (reluctant to admit at that time), I focus on Corporate credits, a new land which is more correlated with equities investments.

I still remembered initially there's no seat and I chilled out quite a bit before moving to the real seat.  It didn't take long until the Bear Stearns hedge fund collapse hit the wire, with CDO offer lists passing by.

If investment banks have characters, Bear Stearns is the maverick, and it's not too surprising nobody assisted ML pulled the trigger to bankrupt the 2 funds even at the expense of its gigantic mortgage/credit holdings. 

At that time, for a green person like myself, the collapse of two funds look like a shock to me.

If it did, the multi-billion CDO write-down and firing "competition" among banks, aggressive Fed "insurance" actions, the relentless decline of housing market and deteriorating of loan performance, the contagion that spreads to all areas of fixed-income including repos, munis, money-market (supposed to be "boring" area).

Bear Stearns always win in terms of media coverage and the speed of collapse.  The government-assisted buyout marks the end of a rising banking star firm;  but its larger scale compared with the classical LTCM bailout highlighted the fact that the 2007/08 financial crisis is worse than seen in decades.  While market quickly acknowledge the turmoil, on the backdrop of a US recession, and instead focused on the decoupling vs contagion theories in how global/emerging markets behave, it seems like the majority still underestimated the US problems, which really rooted in the incredible amount of leverage employed by US consumers, financial intermediatories and investors in the few years.  Warren Buffet once called derivatives the financial weapons of mass destructions.  Everyone agrees on the significance of derivative, financial engineering on improving the efficiency of capital markets.  But when we get killed, we really get killed.

It's a long, emotional, physical battle in the "worst of times".

It's a big contrast to the "best of times" that I experienced pretty much in the same period, ( the return from California visit, back in NYC to seeing first thing the breaking news, is a sound snapshot of this ironic contrast), something and someone I gained who has a significance in my whole life.  It's been fun, gentle and thought-provoking interactions.  I know have someone who will accept myself and make myself a more complete man bracing for quite some challenges aheads.  Do I call this grace, or a watershed in my life I have to take up more responsibilities? 

The visit work well with more understanding been built.  More hope built?  Meet-ups, workout and the fresh air of California make it like a mini retreat.  The core theme of "planning" is really steering things in the right direction I guess?  What a wake-up call for a lazze-faire guy like me.

Behind the best of times and worst of times lie an eternal promise, something God's given.  "there is nothing new under the sun", what a humbling statement. 

Back from Brazil

Lovely trip!!!!  Little Things:

1.  Brazilian Real (BRL) is a very volatile and rapidly appreciating currency.  The cost of trip is volatile! 

2.  Yeah.  you know you're hitting Rio de Janeiro, one of the nicest cities in South America, and Manaus the "capital of Amazonas", but you still have to stop by the "South America New York" Sao Paulo, multiple times, even though it means your flights are delayed for 3 hours and doesn't go in the right directions.

3.  Brazilian food in general are more salty and sweeter for desserts.  Brazilian BBQ (churrascarias) is very similar to what we can taste in the States, though with more bread types.  I liked the peach and mango juices. 

4.  Sugarloaf (Pao de Acucar) & Christ Statue (Christo Redentor) on Corcovaca are terrific spots to browse Rio, but make sure weather is okay as lightnings like to hit tall structures.

5.  A cruise along the amazon rivers is a nice and fun way to explore the forests.  Rio Negro, the dark river that looks like tea, offers less bug attack because of its acidity.  Amazon river, the yellow rivers supports more lives.  Not a lots of animals you can see, but visiting Amazon definitely won't disappoint.

6.  MAC (Contemporary Art Museum) is not in Rio.  It's across the sea.

7. After visiting the cone-shaped Catedral Metropolicana, you head to Santa Teresa on the traditional "bonde" tram.  It's cool, but make sures you're not on the edge of the standing class, the tracks are pretty high from the ground!

8.  The local drink, "Cachara" e.g. Ypioca doesn't taste good

9.  Try to get in touch with Samba schools promptly for watching rehearsals.  Booking the trip through your hotel means skyrocketed prices.

10.  Manaus' airport is decent for sleeping over in.

11.  People are nice and lots of neighborhoods are safe.  People are willing to help if u know Portuges, and they are just smiling figuring out langugages don't work..